https://acleddata.com/events/webinar-acled-conflict-index-2025-watchlist/
ACLED’s Conflict Index ranks the top 50 countries and territories experiencing the most extreme conflicts, based on four key indicators: deadliness, civilian danger, geographic spread, and armed group fragmentation.
Informed by the Conflict Index, ACLED’s 2025 Conflict Watchlist, spotlights 10 critical crisis areas likely to evolve in the year ahead. From civil wars and insurgencies to cartel violence and communal clashes, these resources reveal where conflict is most deadly, dynamic, and evolving.
Palestine is the most dangerous and violent place in the world in 2024.
81% of Palestine’s population is exposed to conflict, 35,000 fatalities are recorded in the past 12 months (over 50,000 since Hamas’ attack on 7 October 2023), and civilians remain under daily assault from bombings and incursions. On average, 52 conflict incidents occur in Palestinian territories per day.
Because of Palestine’s — and specifically Gaza’s — level of violence compared to other conflicts and the lack of a ceasefire between combatants, it is very likely to continue being an intense conflict into 2025.
While Palestine had the most dangerous and diffuse conflict in 2024, in Myanmar, an average of 170 distinct non-state armed groups were active each week, and the groups changed quite frequently. Ukraine remained the deadliest conflict.
How much conflict is occurring in the world?
In the past five years, conflict levels have almost doubled. For 2020, we recorded 104,371 conflict events; this year, for the same period, nearly 200,000.
Over 233,000 deaths is a conservative estimate of reported fatalities resulting from these events in the past year.
This is largely due to three very large conflicts beginning or restarting during that time — Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar — coupled with continued violence in many other countries with high rates of conflict — including Sudan, Mexico, Yemen, and Sahel countries, and very few conflicts ending. Civilian exposure to violence, conflict incidents, and the number of armed groups involved in violence are proliferating.
2024 had a 25% increase in political violence events compared to 2023, similar to the average level of increase year-on-year since 2020.
ABOUT:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) is a disaggregated data collection, analysis, and crisis mapping initiative. ACLED collects information on the dates, actors, locations, fatalities, and types of all reported political violence and protest events around the world. The ACLED team conducts analysis to describe and explore conflict trends.
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