WWF report: Only 10 Member States’ wind energy ambitions compatible with Paris Agreement

Arnaud Van Dooren, Climate and Energy Policy Officer at WWF European Policy Office: “Member States’ ambitions for wind deployment are broadly in line with the new RED target - at least on paper. The question is whether they’ll be able to meet them. And indeed exceed them, because the EU’s 42.5% target falls well short of what’s needed to limit climate heating to 1.5°C.”

The recent announcement by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of a new ‘Wind Package’ during her State of the European Union (EU) emphasised again the need for the expansion of wind energy and put the spotlight on the problems the sector is facing. Earlier this year the EU agreed on a newly revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED) which includes a higher renewable energy target (RET) of 42.5%. This increase implies that Member States will have to more than double their wind energy capacity (in GW) by 2030.

While that would represent a step in the right direction and an opportunity to create thousands of new jobs, this is a big increase which will create challenges for Member States. Analysis shows that Member States would have to triple their current annual level of wind deployment, from 16 GW installed in 2022, to 44 GW in 2030. WWF believes this can only be achieved through holistic planning for nature and people.

Arnaud Van Dooren, Climate and Energy Policy Officer at WWF European Policy Office: “If we’re going to expand wind power rapidly while minimising impacts on communities and nature, then early and effective planning that considers climate, nature and social goals in parallel is critical. The EU’s current trend to accelerate permitting processes by exempting renewable projects or clean tech from environmental rules is the wrong way to go. The expansion of renewable energy requires holistic planning, otherwise we might end up impacting the very nature and people we seek to protect.”

Unfortunately, reaching this new RED target will not be enough to stay in line with the Paris Agreement and limit global warming to under 1.5°C. This is shown in the report by the Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) energy scenario and Ember New Generation modelling - which are both in line with WWF’s recommendations of 50% renewable energy by 2030. In fact, the report compared the compatibility of Member States’ ambitions with the PAC scenario and found that only 10 Member States are in line with this scenario.

To achieve any of these goals, Member States will need to overcome significant challenges, from the need to win local public support to expanding grid infrastructure, and speeding up permitting processes - in particular by increasing administrative capacity in competent authorities. While the deployment of wind energy needs to be massively accelerated, the transition towards 100% renewable energy should not come at the expense of nature or exploit the weakening of environmental legislation. Several studie have already outlined that it is possible to achieve targets in a nature-friendly way.